Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,867,785$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.33 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,670,343.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 153.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,670,343.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $180,824$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.69 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161,611.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 66.0)}}\) (asimptote \(161,611.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,585,635$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $579,914$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{684,951.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 122.1)}}\) (asimptote \(684,951.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $62,594$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,308.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.6)}}\) (asimptote \(68,308.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41,788$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $89,982$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,084.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 136.7)}}\) (asimptote \(117,084.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,948$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(69.3 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,222.7}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 152.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,222.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,038$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $128,836$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,275.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 61.6)}}\) (asimptote \(117,275.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,148$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,915.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,915.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,078$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $57,669$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,657.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 119.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60,657.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,803$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(60.4 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,214.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,214.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $46,280$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $92,964$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,121.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 144.5)}}\) (asimptote \(144,121.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,630$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(155 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,266.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 163.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,266.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,987$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $71,856$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,291.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 123.1)}}\) (asimptote \(80,291.4\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,685$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(87.5 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,865.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 106.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,865.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,530$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,284$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(563 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,956.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 131.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,956.9\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $694$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(15.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{836.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 119.6)}}\) (asimptote \(836.1\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,299$ on 2020-08-27
